Australia Weather News

There are many skills required of a meteorologist to be a great weather forecaster, when forecasting from 1 hour ahead (Nowcasting) to one week or even long range forecasting. Weather forecasting is a science, based on an understand of the physics of the atmosphere and how it behaves. However, it is also an art and ability in this area will separate the great forecaster from the average one.

These days, the use of computer models to predict the future behaviour of the atmosphere is becoming more important as the skill of the models and their complexity improves with the use of bigger and faster computers.

The best forecasters need to have a skill in weather pattern recognition and a skill in working out interactions of the many variables analysed by the models. The ability to "see" the atmosphere in 3-D and to visualize atmospheric processes in your mind is also important. It is in these areas that local experience can be very important, because the forecaster must be able to make fast interpretations of the models and their analytical charts.

The great forecaster also needs a good memory, not only to learn from previous failures but to remember similar situations in the past and what happened on those occasions. Previous forecasting inaccuracies can be corrected with experience to improve the forecasts in the future. Knowledge in this area can be just as, if not more, important than a good knowledge of meteorological theory. Local knowledge can be important as well. For example, a farmer watching the weather for many years around his property, as a "head start" for at least short term forecasting. Ultimately, intuition or a "6th sense" can always improve a forecaster's skill. Communication skills are also important. Putting the forecast into words that the general public can understand is essential and the use of language, catchy phrases and anecdotes can improve understanding. But, in the long run, there is no substitute for experience. WillyWeather